The forecasts on Polymarket for the approval of the Clarity Act in the United States reached the lowest level since the creation of the betting market related to the bill. This Friday, participants on the platform began assigning only 32% probability that the proposal will be approved by December 31, 2026, signaling a loss of confidence in Congress's ability to complete the vote within the deadline.
The percentage represents a drop of about 30 points compared with the start of trading, in January. At the time, the bill sparked great optimism among investors and reached 82% chance of approval in February. Since May, however, expectations have declined consistently.
A large part of this movement is linked to the United States Senate calendar. With an increasingly tight legislative agenda and few working days before the August recess, lawmakers are facing difficulties in gathering the bipartisan support needed to approve the proposal.
Even with negotiations taking place behind the scenes, there is still no consensus on points considered essential by Democrats. One of the main sticking points continues to be the inclusion of an ethics clause related to conflicts of interest involving public officials and digital assets.
Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona again stated that he will not support the proposal on the Senate floor without the inclusion of a bipartisan agreement on this issue. Other members of the Democratic Party are also advocating similar changes before the final vote.
So far, no public update has indicated progress after the meeting held between the current president of the United States, Donald Trump, and Republican senators to discuss the bill. A new version of the text containing the changes required by the opposition has also not been released.
If approved, the Clarity Act will establish a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market in the United States. The proposal defines which digital assets will fall under the supervision of the SEC and which will come to be regulated by the CFTC, reducing the legal uncertainty faced by the sector in recent years.
During a hearing held in the House of Representatives, industry representatives once again defended the need for clear legislation. "The community has already done the hard work," said Sarah Aberg, an executive at Nova Labs. "Clarity is not a call for deregulation; it is a call for proper regulation by the proper regulator."
Randy Abernethy, an executive at Bullish, said that companies need a "set of rules" that encourages operations to remain in the United States, rather than stimulating migration to other countries. Ryan Louvar, of WisdomTree, stated that the proposal would create permanent rules for the market, while Jason Sommensatto, of Coin Center, highlighted that the text protects software developers without compromising anti-money laundering measures or safeguards intended for investors.
With only a few legislative weeks available after the August recess, the forecasts from Polymarket indicate that the market continues to reduce expectations for the approval of the Clarity Act, reflecting the lack of political consensus around one of the most important proposals for cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.