The Bitcoin may be approaching the low of the current market cycle, according to ARK Invest. In its quarterly report, the asset manager says that selling pressure is showing signs of exhaustion, while on-chain indicators show behavior common in periods of capitulation.
At the end of the second quarter, the largest cryptocurrency on the market fell to around US$ 58.544, ending the period below important technical and on-chain averages. Despite this, the company highlights that the asset has not yet revisited its investors' cost basis range, which could open room for a test between US$ 49.000 e US$ 53.000 before a bottom forms.
ARK emphasizes that some indicators already suggest a change in market behavior. The amount of Bitcoin held at a loss surpassed the supply in profit, while long-term investors expanded their reserves to a record 14,85 milhões de BTC. In addition, the volume of realized losses temporarily exceeded that of profits, a pattern frequently observed near cycle lows.
Another highlighted point is that volatility remained relatively controlled during the decline, indicating a more stable market than in previous cycles.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at US$ 62.900, about 2,5% below the level recorded 24 hours earlier, after retreating from the weekly high of US$ 65.000. The move occurred amid rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainties over the progress of the CLARITY Act in the United States Congress.
The asset manager also observed a weakening in institutional demand. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded the first streak of seven consecutive weeks of net outflows, with approximately 71.000 BTC withdrawn during the quarter. At the same time, Strategy's STRC preferred shares remained trading at a discount to par value, indicating an increase in the financing cost of companies that accumulate Bitcoin in treasury.
Even in this environment, Bitcoin futures contracts maintained a positive basis of approximately 2,3%, showing that the derivatives market continues with no signs of panic. On the macroeconomic front, ARK assesses that the United States continues to be favored by productivity gains, investments in artificial intelligence and infrastructure, and the growth of long-term corporate investments.