Bernstein revised upward its price target for Robinhood shares and reiterated its outperform rating. The research firm raised its estimate from US$ 130 to US$ 160 per share, highlighting that the brokerage is in a favorable position to benefit from changes in retail investor behavior and the expansion of new financial markets.
The assessment considers that the coming years will be marked by a dispute among brokerages, traditional exchanges, prediction platforms, and cryptocurrency-related companies for a market that could generate more than US$ 70 billion in fees. Among the segments identified as drivers of this growth are prediction markets, perpetual futures contracts, tokenized stocks, and new contracts related to computing infrastructure.
According to Bernstein, prediction markets have gained enough scale to compete directly with cryptocurrencies as one of Robinhood’s main sources of revenue. The expectation is that this division will post a compound annual growth rate of 64% through 2028, reaching approximately US$ 1,7 billion in revenue.
A large part of this projection is tied to the performance of Rothera, a brokerage affiliated with Robinhood and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The platform began operations at the end of May and, since then, has already processed more than 3,5 billion contracts. Analysts highlight that about 93% of this volume was driven by markets related to the FIFA World Cup.
The institution also notes that Rothera quickly gained ground among the largest platforms in the segment. In just one month of operation, the company reached fourth place in trading volume in prediction markets, accounting for approximately 16% of the event contracts operated by Robinhood. The remainder continues to be directed to Kalshi.
For Bernstein, the second quarter of 2026 could represent a milestone for the company. For the first time, revenue from prediction markets may exceed that obtained from cryptocurrency trading, signaling an important change in the composition of the brokerage’s revenues.
Analysts estimate that prediction markets will generate about US$ 150 millions in revenue in the quarter, above the approximately US$ 104 millions recorded in the first quarter. At the same time, the expectation is for a reduction of about 38% in cryptocurrency trading volume compared with the previous period, highlighting a gradual migration of investor activity to new financial products available on the platform.