比特币最终将打破递减周期的模式。 我分析了位于每个之前 ATH 上方的递减回报数字，以及自第一个 $BTC 周期以来熊市中逐步更浅的回撤。 让这种轨迹无限期地持续下去显然没有意义。 如果这种模式无止境地延续下去，比特币最终会变成一个几乎不怎么动的资产，尽管全球需求增加、持续的货币扩张 + 供给有限。 在某个时刻，这个模型必须被打破。 我的观点是，这种突破将通过显著高于历史数学所暗示的更高熊市基金来实现。只要发生这种情况，整个递减回报模型也将开始失效，从而带来比当前趋势所预测更强的上涨。 从纯数学的角度来看，模型会意味着类似这样的情况…… 在这个周期：底部在 38K 下一个周期：底部在 46K 之后：底部在 55K 再之后：底部在 65K 这条轨迹并不太有意义。它也意味着：在每个周期之后的上涨会越来越小，最终让 BTC 的波动性几乎为零。 我认为现实会不同。 与其永远重复更浅的熊市回撤，我们可能会经历 60% 、然后是 40-50% 的回调，并伴随更快的反弹以及比递减模型所暗示更强的回报。 如果发生这种情况，给周期底部做时间把握将会变得越来越困难，因为市场最终将不再尊重所有人都期待的历史减弱因素。 因此，我相信，在出现一次足够重大的宏观回撤之后，买入总是一个不错的时机，而不是试图完美地猜中底部。 很多人会被*搞惨并在这么做的时候错过底部。
Bitcoin will eventually break the diminishing cycles pattern. I ran the numbers on both the diminishing returns above each previous ATH and the progressively shallower bear market retracements since $BTC's first cycle. Following that trajectory forever simply doesn't make sense. If the pattern continued indefinitely, Bitcoin would eventually become an asset that barely moves, despite increasing global demand, ongoing monetary expansion + limited supply. At some point, the model has to break. My view is that the break comes through significantly higher bear market lows than historical mathematics would suggest. Once that happens, the entire diminishing returns model begins to fail as well, leading to stronger upside than the trend currently projects. Purely mathematically, the model would imply something like this... This cycle: 38K bottom Next cycle: 46K bottom Then: 55K bottom Then: 65K bottom That trajectory doesn't make much sense. It would also imply progressively smaller upside after each cycle, eventually leaving BTC with very little volatility. I think reality looks different. Instead of repeating the shallower bear market retracements forever, we could transition into 60% corrections, then 40-50%, with faster recoveries and stronger returns than the diminishing models imply. If that happens, timing cycle bottoms will become increasingly difficult, because the market will eventually stop respecting the historical diminishing factors that everyone expects. Hence why I believe it's always a good time to buy after a significant macro retrace, rather than trying to perfectly time the bottom. Many will get f*cked & miss the lows in doing so.
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