比特币 vs 标普500 — 哪种投资才是真正的赢家？ 迈克尔·塞勒在布拉格的回答把这个问题又重新抛回到了我面前：这不是在问“谁赢”。而是你相信什么，以及你的投资组合是否符合这种信念。 他的测试残酷得异常简单——如果你不认为比特币会在长期内跑赢标普500，那么你根本不应该买它。并且，如果你认为如此，那么一次下跌并不是卖出的理由。那只是折扣。 “如果你不觉得它和标普指数一样好，那么你根本不会买它。” 没有目标价，没有卖出压力——在你确定任何仓位之前，只需对自己的信念保持诚实。这是他的论点，不是我的，但纪律远不止于比特币：先决定你真正相信什么，然后让它来定义你的仓位——而不是过去三个价格月。 未来十年，比特币高于标普500——是或否？
Bitcoin vs the S&P 500 — which investment actually wins? Michael Saylor's answer in Prague reframed the whole question for me: it's not about which wins. It's about what you believe, and whether your portfolio matches that belief. His test is brutally simple — if you don't think Bitcoin outperforms the S&P over time, you shouldn't own it at all. And if you do, a drawdown isn't a reason to sell. It's the discount. "If you didn't think it was as good as the S&P index, you wouldn't buy it at all." No price target, no hard sell — just get honest about your own conviction before you size anything. That's his call, not mine, but the discipline travels well beyond Bitcoin: decide what you actually believe, then let that set the position — not the last three months of price. Bitcoin over the S&P for the next ten years — yes or no?
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