Shiba Inu is back on the crypto market's radar. In just two trading sessions, the meme token posted gains that reached 40%, added close to US$ 1 billion to its market capitalization and reclaimed 25th place in the CoinMarketCap ranking. The move confirmed, almost point by point, the scenario outlined in analyses published last week — but on-chain data suggest that retail investors have little reason to pop the champagne.
A rally born in a vacuum
The key point to understanding SHIB’s jump is not demand, but rather the absence of it on the other side of the order book. About four days ago, reports were already indicating that the order books of the main exchanges were unusually thin: the small investor had disappeared from the market, and a large part of the circulating supply had moved to cold wallets, out of the market’s immediate reach.
That thesis was confirmed. With few sell orders placed on the price levels above, any meaningfully sized purchase pushes the price several levels higher all at once. That is exactly what happened — an appreciation amplified by scarce liquidity, not necessarily by a wave of new buyers.
What the on-chain data really show
In the last 24 hours, exchanges recorded gross inflows close to 2,4 trillion SHIB, while the price jumped from around US$ 0,0000042 to roughly US$ 0,0000054. At first glance, a number like that is alarming: deposits on exchanges are usually read as an intention to sell.
But the gross number is misleading. In the same interval, approximately 2,376 trillion tokens left the platforms. In other words: against the roughly 2,399 trillion that came in, the net flow was only about 22,6 billion SHIB — a tiny fraction of the apparent volume.
The correct reading, therefore, is not one of 2 trillion tokens dumped on the sell side, but rather one of intense position rotation in both directions, typical of traders, market makers, and large holders rebalancing portfolios during a rebound. It is worth reinforcing: the observed flows come from exchange wallets monitored on an aggregated basis, and there is no evidence of a single identifiable whale behind the deposits.
This makes the price reaction more significant than the volume itself. Even in the face of elevated deposits, buyers absorbed the available supply and pushed SHIB above its short-term moving averages — a sign that there was real demand, even if in an environment of fragile liquidity.
Shytoshi Kusama’s silence has now lasted 74 days
While the chart moves, the community is tracking another counter: Shytoshi Kusama’s silence. The project’s main ambassador has neither posted nor interacted on X since 13 de maio — that makes 74 days without any public statement on the network.
The withdrawal is not unprecedented. Kusama had already stepped back in a similar way at the end of 2025 and during part of 2026, and in January he justified the previous absence by revealing an independent artificial intelligence project that he had been developing in parallel.
The detail fueling speculation is the pattern: on past occasions, long periods of silence preceded relevant announcements. Since Kusama usually uses X as his main channel — including changing his profile biography and location to give subtle clues, in addition to resorting to live broadcasts — the community started digging for signals in ecosystem collaborators and on-chain activity. Until the closing of this article, however, there is no confirmation that an announcement is near.
Burns continue at a steady pace
Regardless of the ambassador’s absence, the community-driven burn mechanism continues running. According to Shibburn data, 7,15 million SHIB were destroyed in the last 24 hours, with the daily burn rate rising 66%.
On the cumulative basis, the volume reaches 60,58 million tokens burned in seven days and 288,61 million in 30 days. Robinhood appears as the biggest contributor in the monthly period, having sent 152.792.823 SHIB to inactive wallets over 106 transactions.
Even so, the effect needs to be put into perspective: compared with a supply in the hundreds of trillions of tokens, the impact of burns on scarcity remains marginal in the short term. The value is more symbolic and narrative than structural.
What to watch from here
Three points define the next chapter of SHIB:
- Return of liquidity. If order books remain shallow, the same dynamic that pushed the price upward could work in the opposite direction, with equally rapid declines.
- Net flow behavior. A consistent shift toward net outflows from exchanges would indicate accumulation; growing net inflows would signal selling pressure forming.
- Kusama's return to X. Any post after 74 days tends to generate an immediate reaction in the community, for better or for worse.
For now, the Shiba Inu rally is real on the chart, but built on a narrow technical foundation. Without the return of retail and without depth in the order books, the sustainability of the move remains an open question.
