Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
PolymarketMarket prediction · Crypto
Volume $4.5Modds
History (¢)
Current probabilities
| Range | Probability (Yes) | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mercado | 6% | $4.5M |
How to read
The percentages above represent the implied probability that the prediction market assigns to each range — the higher the value, the more likely the market considers it. The price in cents (¢) reflects how much participants pay for a contract that pays US$ 1 if the outcome occurs. Odds change in real time as new trades happen. Informational content, with no betting intermediation.
Market context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto in Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will be resolved based on a consensus of reliable sources.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto in Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the Satoshi Nakamoto entity page available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will be resolved based on a consensus of reliable sources.
Related predictions
Source: Polymarket · Informational content, no betting intermediation.