The new test of a ballistic missile launched by a Chinese nuclear submarine has once again raised attention about security in the Asia-Pacific region. Analysts assess that the demonstration of military capability tends to produce the opposite effect of what Beijing intends, encouraging neighboring countries to expand defense alliances and strengthen cooperation with the United States and regional partners.
The launch took place on Monday, when a submarine of the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired a missile with a simulated warhead toward international waters in the Pacific Ocean. According to the Chinese state agency Xinhua, the projectile hit the planned target area precisely and was part of routine military training, with no target of any country.
The exercise represents China’s first strategic test in the region since September 2024, when Beijing carried out a launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile with nuclear capability toward the vicinity of French Polynesia. Since then, specialists have been monitoring the evolution of China’s land-, sea- and air-based nuclear capability.
For Ely Ratner, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, the move should bring the American allies in the region even closer. “This assertiveness by Beijing should serve to tighten the bonds between U.S. allies in Asia.”
Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, believes the launch expands concerns that already existed about China’s rapid military modernization. “China used primarily this missile launch to test and demonstrate its nuclear second-strike capability”, he said. According to him, after land and sea tests, a future air launch could complete new stages of demonstrating China’s nuclear triad.
In recent years, Beijing has accelerated investments to consolidate its ability to launch nuclear weapons from the ground, submarines, and aircraft. This structure expands its deterrence power in potential crises involving the United States or disputes in the Indo-Pacific.
Although the Chinese government did not inform which model was used, specialists point out that the launch probably involved the JL-3, considered the country’s most modern submarine-launched ballistic missile. The equipment has sufficient range to hit part of the contiguous territory of the United States when fired near the Chinese coastline.
China’s Ministry of Defense spokesperson, Chen Xi, said the exercise met its objectives and reported that neighboring countries received advance notice. “Beijing keeps its nuclear forces at the minimum level necessary for national security and will not engage in a nuclear arms race with any country.”
Despite that justification, the test triggered immediate reactions among governments in the region. Australia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Penny Wong, described the action as “destabilizing for the region” and said it takes place during a period of rapid Chinese military expansion.
New Zealand’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Winston Peters, also criticized the launch, noting that the Chinese government notified Wellington only a few hours before the firing. Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department said the accelerated and insufficiently transparent growth of China’s nuclear arsenal continues to be a cause for international concern.
Meanwhile, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, the Philippines, and other Pacific nations are expanding joint military exercises, defense agreements, and security investments. Fiji has recently signed a mutual defense treaty with Canberra, while Vanuatu agreed to prevent foreign military bases from being installed on its territory—measures that specialists interpret as part of the regional response to China’s increased military presence in the Pacific.