U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal to impose a 20% tariff on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz is leading analysts to reassess the outlook for the global oil market. Although the details of the measure have not yet been disclosed, experts assess that the biggest impact is not in the additional cost of the tariff, but in the increase in geopolitical risk in one of the most important maritime routes for global supply.
At the beginning of this month, the prevailing expectation was that global oil supply would exceed demand in the coming quarters. Now, that scenario has come into question amid the possibility of new disruptions to the flow of vessels through the strait, which is responsible for transporting about one-fifth of the oil consumed in the world.
"The market was expecting an increase in supply after the memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran last month. That scenario has changed," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, in an interview with CNBC.
According to Lipow, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would put at risk any expectation of a surplus in the market. If the tariff is applied directly to crude oil cargoes, it could add approximately US$ 16 por barril to the cost of oil transported through the region, although the White House has not yet explained how the charge will be implemented.
The market reaction was immediate. WTI crude oil futures contracts for August delivery rose 2,23%, to US$ 79,90 por barril, while Brent, the global benchmark, climbed 2,14%, to US$ 85,11, extending the gains recorded in the previous session.
For Citi, the proposal also significantly increases the risks of a military escalation in the Middle East. In a report released this Tuesday, the bank said that implementing the tariff could undermine the memorandum signed between Washington and Tehran, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged period of high oil prices.
"The risk of military escalation has increased substantially if the measure is implemented," the analysts wrote. According to the bank, the possibility is also growing that Iran will abandon the agreement signed with the United States before the American legislative elections, increasing uncertainties about the balance between supply and demand.
More than the impact of the tariff on transportation costs, investors are monitoring the effects that a worsening of tensions could have on the physical flow of oil.
Henry Hoffman, co-manager of the Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund, stated that a prolonged disruption to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could force producers in the region to reduce output if they are unable to export stored oil.
Data from maritime intelligence company Kpler show that only 14 vessels crossed the strait on Sunday, including four oil tankers. In the previous week, the number had been 37 ships, highlighting a sharp reduction in traffic.
According to Hoffman, if exports remain limited, storage tanks could quickly reach their maximum capacity, forcing producers to halt part of production.
"The effective impact on supply could be much greater than that observed solely from the damage to infrastructure," he said.
The new tensions also cast doubt on the projections of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which had indicated last week the expectation of a return of the global oil surplus by the end of 2026. That estimate, however, depended on the gradual normalization of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, signs of a recovery in Asian demand could increase pressure on the market. Saudi Aramco recently cut by US$ 11 per barrel the price of its main oil destined for Asia, now offering a discount of US$ 1,50 relative to the Oman/Dubai benchmark. The move tends to encourage Chinese refineries to increase purchases precisely at a time when the reliability of Middle Eastern supply is once again being questioned.
With the combination of geopolitical risks, reduced maritime traffic, and a possible recovery in Asian demand, the market is now monitoring the evolution of tensions in the region more cautiously, as they could quickly alter the outlook for global oil supply in the coming months.