Wall Street bank Cantor Fitzgerald assesses that the cryptocurrency market may be approaching the final stage of the current bitcoin bear cycle. The institution considers that the patterns observed in previous cycles indicate a possible stabilization of prices in the coming months, although it notes that macroeconomic and regulatory factors continue to influence market behavior.
"Ultimately, we believe we are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback," said analysts led by Gareth Gacetta in Tuesday's report.
The analysis uses the history of bitcoin's last three cycles as a reference. On June 10, 2026, BTC had accumulated approximately 252 days since the top recorded in 2025, with a decline of close to 51%. In previous cycles, the cryptocurrency found its bottom, on average, 384 days after reaching its peak, which would lead the market to a possible low around the end of October, if this behavior repeats itself.
The analysts note, however, that this model does not represent an exact forecast. Events linked to the global economy, regulatory changes, and geopolitical issues can significantly alter the price trajectory. Even so, the report highlights that the very nature of cryptocurrency cycles may contribute to historical patterns ultimately being reproduced.
At the time the study was released, bitcoin was trading near US$ 59.800, remaining more than 50% below the peak reached at the end of 2025. The sharp correction recorded over the past few months was attributed mainly to outflows from bitcoin ETFs, the maintenance of high interest rates, and the reduced appetite of investors for higher-risk assets.
Meanwhile, Ether and a large part of the leading altcoins underperformed bitcoin during this period. In contrast, segments such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenization showed greater resilience even amid the market slowdown.
Cantor Fitzgerald also states that the expansion of the use of stablecoins, on-chain credit, tokenized real-world assets, and DeFi applications does not, by itself, guarantee token appreciation. According to the bank, the projects that tend to stand out in the long term will be those capable of transforming activity into sustainable revenue or creating consistent monetary demand for their assets.
Among the examples cited, Hyperliquid appears as one of the most solid models of a fee-based economy, using buybacks and burns of the HYPE token. Bitcoin continues to be identified as the sector's main monetary asset, while Ethereum maintains its position as the main collateral layer for on-chain finance.
The report adds that networks such as Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash have relevant characteristics, but still need to demonstrate that they can convert the growth of their ecosystems into permanent demand for their respective tokens. The bank also highlighted digital asset treasury companies, stating that the best-positioned companies are expanding their operations beyond the simple custody of cryptocurrencies, offering infrastructure, yield generation, and solutions aimed at the institutional market.