我观察了 $BTC 的每一个下跌周期。 重要更新： 几乎在所有周期中，我们都完成了一个 5 波修正。并且我们也倾向于形成两个重要的下跌市场顶部。第一个在初始顶部之后紧接着出现，也就是在第一次大幅反弹时。那是“满意顶部”，也就是大多数人相信牛市已经回归的那个点。 正因为如此，我才在本周期中从 96K 到 70K 开了做空仓位。满意顶部一旦被确立，随着宏观修正继续，价格通常会走向新的低点。 我们在 2014、2022 以及 2026 中看到了这一点。至于 2018，价格在“满意反弹”之后没有再创出新的低点，但整体结构仍然非常相似，并伴随多次回测。 不久之后，我们通常会出现“死猫反弹”。在之前的周期中，这次“死猫反弹”会建立基地的底部。在这一阶段，大多数市场参与者在因为“满意”而买入之后已经被打击得差不多了，情绪处在最差水平，并且所有人开始激进地进入做空仓位。 delta 反转，空单被挤压，价格上行。归根结底，这只是市场心理学。在“死猫反弹”形成基地底部之后，最终底部通常会在第二次大幅回测之后被确立。 我们在 2015、2018 和 2022 中看到了这一点。结合到今天，BTC 已经扫出了“死猫反弹”基地的底部，并且完成了与此前周期中所见相同的 5 波修正结构。 唯一让我犹豫的是时机。所有之前的熊市大约持续 365 天，才会形成最终底部。如果本周期的最低点已经被记录，那么它本应在大约 260 天形成，也就是比所有先前周期提前了大约 100 天。 因此我现在仍然是 50/50。结构暗示底部已经形成；而时机则暗示没有。某个时刻，周期的持续时间会发生变化。错误在于假设这种情况永远不会发生。我们需要为这种可能性做好准备。 大概率我们会在接下来的几个月得到答案，但值得强调的是，从结构角度看，所有修正波段都已经完成，并且低点似乎已经被确立。 从这里开始，我们很可能会看到某种横盘整理；但就“底部已经形成”这一点而言，我认为形成更高的低点比出现新的、重大的低点更可能。
I observed every single $BTC bear cycle. Key update: Practically every single cycle, we complete a 5-wave correction. We also tend to form two significant bear market highs. The first comes immediately after the initial top on the first major retrace. This is the complacency high, the point where the majority believe the bull market is back. It's exactly why I took shorts from 96K down to 70K this cycle. Once that complacency high is established, price usually pushes to fresh lows as the macro correction continues. We saw this in 2014, 2022, and again in 2026. In 2018, price didn't make a new low after the complacency bounce, but the overall structure remained very similar with multiple retests. Shortly afterwards, we typically get a dead cat bounce. Across the previous cycles, this dead cat bounce establishes the base low. By this stage, most market participants have already been wrecked after buying into complacency, sentiment is at its worst, and everyone begins aggressively piling into shorts. Delta flips, shorts get squeezed, and price rallies. At the end of the day, it's simply market psychology. After the dead cat base low is formed, the final bottom is usually established following the second major retest. We saw this in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Fast forward to today, BTC has swept the dead cat base low and completed the same 5-wave corrective structure we've seen throughout previous cycles. The only thing that makes me hesitate is the timing. Every previous bear market has lasted roughly 365 days before putting in the final bottom. If the low is already in this cycle, it would have formed in around 260 days, roughly 100 days earlier than every previous cycle. That's why I'm still 50/50. Structure suggests the bottom is in. Timing suggests it isn't. Eventually, cycle lengths will change. The mistake is assuming they never will. We need to be prepared for that possibility. We'll likely have our answer over the next couple of months, but it's worth pointing out that, from a structural perspective, every corrective wave has now been completed and the lows appear to have been established. There is a very good chance we get some chop from here, but in terms of the low being in, I think it's more likely we form higher lows than make significant new lows.
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