所有人都在问，为什么 Bitcoin 落后于此同时 S&P 创下历史新高。Michael Saylor 在布拉格给了我最直接的答案： “我们正在经历 AI 泡沫的这个夏天……此刻有 $500 billion 的资本正在被吸走，流向 AI 复合体。” 他的解读是：一个“巨大的、在系统中旋转的 AI 黑洞”，把边际美元从加密转向每一个火热的 AI 业务。没有任何东西崩塌——资本只是找到了另一个地方、更吵闹的地方去流动。 我尊重的是，他没有把这件事说得很含糊。他给出了一个时间点：“我认为，这些投机性资金中很多会回流到 Bitcoin，因为 Bitcoin 现在被低估”——资金会在围绕 Q3 这一轮回流，而在 Q4 “一切都会朝着对我们有利的方向正常化。” 这是他的判断，不是我的——但它有时间框架，而且可以被检验，也正因如此，值得把它记录下来。再过六个月，我们就会看到这种轮动，或者看不到。 就“被低估”而言，他给出的标准——据称——是相对于 200 周移动均线的折价；他称之为 Bitcoin 的“账面价值（value accounting）”。比日线蜡烛更清晰的一种观察视角，不管人们如何看待时机。 你买不买“ AI 引流”这套论点——或者说，这种滞后是不是在告诉我们更结构性的东西？
Everyone's asking why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P prints all-time highs. Michael Saylor gave me the cleanest answer in Prague: "We're living right now in the summer of the AI bubble... $500 billion of capital is being lurped into the AI complex right now." His framing: a "massive AI black hole spinning through the system," pulling the marginal dollar into every hot AI deal instead of crypto. Nothing broke — the capital just found somewhere louder to go. What I respect is that he didn't leave it vague. He put a clock on it: "I think a lot of that hot money will come back into Bitcoin because Bitcoin is now undervalued" — capital rotating back around Q3, and by Q4 "things will be normalizing to our benefit." That's his call, not mine — but it's dated and testable, which is exactly why it's worth writing down. In six months we either see the rotation or we don't. His yardstick for "undervalued," for what it's worth, is the discount to the 200-week moving average — what he calls the "book value" of Bitcoin. A cleaner lens than the daily candle, whatever you make of the timing. Do you buy the AI-drain thesis — or is the lag telling us something more structural?
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