The Bitcoin (BTC) is trading higher this Thursday (2) and is once again being traded above US$ 61 thousand, recovering part of the losses recorded at the beginning of the week. The appreciation comes after the release of the United States payroll, which showed the creation of only 57 thousand jobs in June, far below market expectations, which were for 111 thousand new jobs. The result strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adopt a less restrictive monetary policy in the coming months, favoring risk assets such as Bitcoin.
In addition to the macroeconomic scenario, analysts point out that the resumption of accumulation by long-term investors and the increase in buy orders on exchanges also contributed to the recovery of the largest cryptocurrency in the market.
According to analyst Ted, "Aggressive $BTC purchases are happening right now on Binance and OKX. Selling on Coinbase has also decreased.".
Despite BTC's rise, the flows of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to show caution. Spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded a net outflow of US$ 296 million on July 1. Among the few positive highlights was the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, which received US$ 36.3 million in new inflows.
Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs performed more favorably, ending the day with net inflows of US$ 14.8 million, driven mainly by ETHA, from BlackRock, which attracted US$ 36.6 million.
Investor accumulation reinforces Bitcoin recovery
Even after weeks of strong selling pressure, on-chain data indicate that long-term investors have started buying Bitcoin again. According to analyst Chris Beamish of Glassnode, the accumulation movement has come to involve everyone from small investors to wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC.
For the first time during the current correction, there are more bitcoins at a loss than in profit. About 10.83 million BTC are below the average purchase price, while approximately 9.22 million remain in profit.
Beamish also highlighted the growth in buy orders on Coinbase and an improvement in the derivatives market structure, factors that may indicate the beginning of a price bottom forming. However, he warns that the increase in demand for put options shows that investors are still seeking protection against further declines, keeping volatility high.
ETFs continue pressuring the market
Although Bitcoin rebounded this Thursday, the performance of the ETFs remains a factor of concern.
During the month of June, spot bitcoin ETFs accumulated US$ 4,5 billion in net outflows, posting the worst result since the launch of these products, in January 2024. IBITIBIT, from BlackRock, accounted for about US$ 3,55 billion of this volume.
Bitfinex analysts believe that the current pressure is not being caused by the macroeconomic environment, but mainly by sellers linked to the cryptocurrency market itself. According to the exchange, Bitcoin continues to trade below the region known as "gamma flip", close to US$ 68 thousand, a level considered important to reduce the volatility caused by the options market.
Another factor that increased the pressure was the decision by Strategy to authorize the sale of up to US$ 1,25 billion in bitcoin to strengthen its cash position and meet financial obligations.
Despite this, Bitfinex highlights that the so-called realized price, currently near US$ 53 mil, continues to function as one of the main structural supports of the current Bitcoin cycle.
Ethereum follows recovery, but the outlook remains cautious
The Ethereum (ETH) also advanced during the session, recovering from the US$ 1.500 region to trade between US$ 1.600 e US$ 1.620.
According to Simon-Peter Massabni of XS.com, the move represents a technical recovery, not a definitive change in trend. The analyst notes that ether ETFs have accumulated seven consecutive weeks of net outflows, totaling approximately US$ 1,18 bilhão, which continues to limit a more consistent recovery.
Payroll reinforces expectations about the Fed's next steps
The main catalyst for Bitcoin's rise this Thursday was the United States jobs report.
The payroll showed that the American economy created only 57 mil vagas em junho, practically half of what economists expected. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell from 4,3% to 4,2%, reinforcing the perception of a gradual slowdown in the labor market.
With lower job growth, investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve may ease its monetary policy earlier than expected. Lower interest rates tend to favor assets considered riskier, such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Although Bitcoin's recovery is seen as a positive sign after the sharp correction of recent days, analysts assess that the market still faces an environment of high volatility. The continuation of the recovery will depend on the stabilization of ETF flows, the maintenance of demand from long-term investors, and upcoming economic indicators from the United States, which should shape expectations for the Fed's monetary policy throughout the second half of the year.