I looked at each of $BTC’s bear market cycles. Important update: In practically all cycles, we completed a 5-wave correction. We also tend to form two significant bear market tops. The first comes immediately after the initial top, in the first major bounce. This is the complacency top, the point at which most believe the bull market has returned. That is exactly why I opened short positions from 96K down to 70K in this cycle. After this complacency top is established, the price usually goes to new lows as the macro correction continues. We saw this in 2014, 2022, and again in 2026. In 2018, the price did not make a new low after the complacency bounce, but the overall structure remained very similar, with several retests. Shortly after, we usually get a dead cat bounce. In previous cycles, this dead cat bounce establishes the bottom of the base. At this stage, most market participants have already been wiped out after buying the complacency, sentiment is at its worst level, and everyone starts aggressively entering short positions. The delta flips, shorts get squeezed, and the price goes up. In the end, this is simply market psychology. After the bottom of the dead cat bounce base is formed, the final bottom is usually established after the second major retest. We saw this in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Bringing it to today, BTC swept the bottom of the dead cat bounce base and completed the same 5-wave corrective structure that we saw throughout previous cycles. The only thing that makes me hesitate is the timing. All previous bear markets lasted about 365 days before forming the final bottom. If the low has already been registered in this cycle, it would have formed in about 260 days, approximately 100 days before all previous cycles. That is why I am still 50/50. The structure suggests that the bottom is already in. The timing suggests it is not. At some point, the duration of the cycles will change. The mistake is assuming that this will never happen. We need to be prepared for that possibility. We will probably have our answer in the coming months, but it is worth noting that, from a structural point of view, the entire corrective wave has already been completed and the lows appear to have already been established. There is a very good chance that we will see some sideways movement from here, but in terms of the bottom already being in, I think it is more likely that we form higher lows than new significant lows.
I observed every single $BTC bear cycle. Key update: Practically every single cycle, we complete a 5-wave correction. We also tend to form two significant bear market highs. The first comes immediately after the initial top on the first major retrace. This is the complacency high, the point where the majority believe the bull market is back. It's exactly why I took shorts from 96K down to 70K this cycle. Once that complacency high is established, price usually pushes to fresh lows as the macro correction continues. We saw this in 2014, 2022, and again in 2026. In 2018, price didn't make a new low after the complacency bounce, but the overall structure remained very similar with multiple retests. Shortly afterwards, we typically get a dead cat bounce. Across the previous cycles, this dead cat bounce establishes the base low. By this stage, most market participants have already been wrecked after buying into complacency, sentiment is at its worst, and everyone begins aggressively piling into shorts. Delta flips, shorts get squeezed, and price rallies. At the end of the day, it's simply market psychology. After the dead cat base low is formed, the final bottom is usually established following the second major retest. We saw this in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Fast forward to today, BTC has swept the dead cat base low and completed the same 5-wave corrective structure we've seen throughout previous cycles. The only thing that makes me hesitate is the timing. Every previous bear market has lasted roughly 365 days before putting in the final bottom. If the low is already in this cycle, it would have formed in around 260 days, roughly 100 days earlier than every previous cycle. That's why I'm still 50/50. Structure suggests the bottom is in. Timing suggests it isn't. Eventually, cycle lengths will change. The mistake is assuming they never will. We need to be prepared for that possibility. We'll likely have our answer over the next couple of months, but it's worth pointing out that, from a structural perspective, every corrective wave has now been completed and the lows appear to have been established. There is a very good chance we get some chop from here, but in terms of the low being in, I think it's more likely we form higher lows than make significant new lows.
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