Bitcoin will eventually break the pattern of diminishing cycles. I analyzed the numbers for both the diminishing returns above each previous ATH and the progressively shallower pullbacks of the bear market since the first $BTC cycle. Following this trajectory forever simply does not make sense. If the pattern continued indefinitely, Bitcoin would end up becoming an asset that barely moves, despite increasing global demand, ongoing monetary expansion + limited supply. At some point, the model needs to break. My view is that this break will come through bear market bottoms significantly higher than historical math would suggest. When that happens, the whole diminishing returns model will also start to fail, leading to a stronger rally than the trend currently projects. From a purely mathematical point of view, the model would imply something like this... This cycle: bottom at 38K Next cycle: bottom at 46K Then: bottom at 55K Then: bottom at 65K This trajectory does not make much sense. It would also imply a progressively smaller rally after each cycle, eventually leaving BTC with very little volatility. I think reality will be different. Instead of repeating shallower bear market pullbacks forever, we could shift to 60% corrections, then 40-50%, with faster recoveries and stronger returns than diminishing models suggest. If that happens, timing cycle bottoms will become increasingly difficult, because the market will eventually stop respecting the historical reduction factors that everyone expects. That is why I believe it is always a good time to buy after a significant macro pullback, instead of trying to perfectly time the bottom. Many will get f*cked and miss the bottoms by doing that.
Bitcoin will eventually break the diminishing cycles pattern. I ran the numbers on both the diminishing returns above each previous ATH and the progressively shallower bear market retracements since $BTC's first cycle. Following that trajectory forever simply doesn't make sense. If the pattern continued indefinitely, Bitcoin would eventually become an asset that barely moves, despite increasing global demand, ongoing monetary expansion + limited supply. At some point, the model has to break. My view is that the break comes through significantly higher bear market lows than historical mathematics would suggest. Once that happens, the entire diminishing returns model begins to fail as well, leading to stronger upside than the trend currently projects. Purely mathematically, the model would imply something like this... This cycle: 38K bottom Next cycle: 46K bottom Then: 55K bottom Then: 65K bottom That trajectory doesn't make much sense. It would also imply progressively smaller upside after each cycle, eventually leaving BTC with very little volatility. I think reality looks different. Instead of repeating the shallower bear market retracements forever, we could transition into 60% corrections, then 40-50%, with faster recoveries and stronger returns than the diminishing models imply. If that happens, timing cycle bottoms will become increasingly difficult, because the market will eventually stop respecting the historical diminishing factors that everyone expects. Hence why I believe it's always a good time to buy after a significant macro retrace, rather than trying to perfectly time the bottom. Many will get f*cked & miss the lows in doing so.
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