The growth of blockchain technology among banks and major financial institutions could alter the balance of the cryptocurrency market in the coming years. In JPMorgan analysts’ assessment, the main challenge for bitcoin is not related to Strategy’s moves or to the BTC sales carried out by the company, but rather to the advancement of private infrastructures that can concentrate much of digital financial operations.
The bank believes that the expansion of permissioned networks for asset tokenization, payments, and settlements tends to reduce the participation of public blockchains in these activities. If this shift consolidates, demand for open networks could decline, affecting sector liquidity and the circulation of capital within the cryptocurrency market.
"We do not consider Strategy the main structural threat to bitcoin", the analysts said. "In our view, the most important risk for bitcoin stems from the broader crypto ecosystem and the continued adoption of blockchain technology in the traditional financial sector, which ignores unpermissioned public networks."
In JPMorgan’s view, banks and financial institutions have prioritized permissioned platforms because they offer greater control over participants’ identity, compliance rules, anti-money laundering, governance, and privacy. These features better meet regulatory requirements and reduce the need to use public networks for institutional operations.
This process also increases competition for blockchains like Ethereum, currently one of the main platforms for tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). Although a significant portion of this market is still concentrated on the network, the analysts believe this represents an initial phase of development, and not necessarily the definitive format of the industry.
Another point highlighted involves tokenized deposits, which represent digital versions of traditional bank deposits. Since they remain tied to the rules of the financial system, they can gain ground among institutions and reduce reliance on stablecoins in payments and settlements.
The report also cites initiatives developed by central banks, by SWIFT, and by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), all focused on regulated infrastructure models for blockchain. In addition, projects led by companies such as DTCC and Securitize show that tokenization can continue to grow without depending exclusively on public blockchains.
Even in this scenario, the analysts recognize that some factors could modify this outlook. Among them are more favorable regulation for stablecoins, hybrid models that integrate public and private networks, and the maintenance of bitcoin as a digital store of value, regardless of the infrastructure used for tokenization and asset settlement.