Everyone is asking why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P is posting all-time highs. Michael Saylor gave me the most direct answer in Prague: "We are now living in the summer of the AI bubble... $500 billion of capital is being sucked into the AI complex right now." His interpretation: a "huge AI black hole spinning through the system," pulling the marginal dollar into every hot AI deal instead of crypto. Nothing broke — capital just found another, louder place to go. What I respect is that he did not leave it vague. He put a timeline on it: "I think much of that speculative money is going to come back to Bitcoin because Bitcoin is now undervalued" — with capital rotating back around Q3, and in Q4 "things are going to normalize in our favor." That is his assessment, not mine — but it has a date and can be tested, and that is exactly why it is worth putting on the record. In six months, we will either see that rotation or we will not. His benchmark for "undervalued," for whatever it is worth, is the discount relative to the 200-week moving average — what he calls Bitcoin's "book value." A cleaner lens than the daily candle, regardless of what one thinks about the timing. Do you buy the AI drain thesis — or is this lag telling us something more structural?
Everyone's asking why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P prints all-time highs. Michael Saylor gave me the cleanest answer in Prague: "We're living right now in the summer of the AI bubble... $500 billion of capital is being lurped into the AI complex right now." His framing: a "massive AI black hole spinning through the system," pulling the marginal dollar into every hot AI deal instead of crypto. Nothing broke — the capital just found somewhere louder to go. What I respect is that he didn't leave it vague. He put a clock on it: "I think a lot of that hot money will come back into Bitcoin because Bitcoin is now undervalued" — capital rotating back around Q3, and by Q4 "things will be normalizing to our benefit." That's his call, not mine — but it's dated and testable, which is exactly why it's worth writing down. In six months we either see the rotation or we don't. His yardstick for "undervalued," for what it's worth, is the discount to the 200-week moving average — what he calls the "book value" of Bitcoin. A cleaner lens than the daily candle, whatever you make of the timing. Do you buy the AI-drain thesis — or is the lag telling us something more structural?
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