It was another difficult week for Bitcoin. The asset lost the US$ 60 thousand level and fell to a multi-year low, in the US$ 58 thousand range, before rebounding.
This Saturday, June 27, it is trading around US$ 60.500, up nearly 2% — a move the market is trying to read as the start of a stabilization, and not just as a breather within a still negative trend.
Three stories explain the mood of recent days: capital flight from the ETFs, the controversy surrounding Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) accumulation strategy, and a stress test that measures what would happen to Michael Saylor’s company in an extreme scenario.
1. ETFs bleed nearly US$ 1,8 billion
Spot Bitcoin ETFs had one of the worst weeks in their history, with net outflows of about US$ 1.79 billion. It was the seventh straight week of redemptions and the second worst performance since these products were created, about two and a half years ago.
The result surprised by its intensity. In the previous two weeks, withdrawals had lost momentum (US$ 316 million and US$ 227 million), well below the US$ 1,72 billion of the first week of June. But investors returned to selling vigorously — it was the biggest bleed since the end of February 2025, when the negative balance reached US$ 2,61 billion.
The bleed worsened throughout the week. It started contained — US$ 90,66 million on Monday and US$ 68 million on Tuesday —, but exploded midweek: US$ 469 million on Wednesday and the worst day, US$ 696 million on Thursday. Friday still closed heavily, with another US$ 444,5 million leaving the funds.
As a result, the total accumulated net inflows fell to about US$ 51,61 billion — down from more than US$ 59,30 billion in mid-May. In other words, nearly US$ 8 billion evaporated in less than two months.
For analysts, stopping these flows is practically a precondition for any more consistent price recovery.
2. Ripple x Strategy: "financial engineering" in the dock
The drop reignited the debate over Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation strategy. The latest name to enter the discussion was Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse.
In an interview with CNBC, he said that Michael Saylor may not be looking at the right attributes of Bitcoin — and that this is now spilling over into the entire market. According to Garlinghouse, the company's purchases "added excitement on the way up" and are now amplifying the downward move.
The criticism was aimed especially at STRC, a stock used to raise funds with the promise of high yields, whose profits are reinvested in more Bitcoin. Saylor avoids the term, but the Ripple executive classifies the operation as leverage — and notes that STRC is still trading about 25% below its US$ 100 par value, something he considers a "pretty damning indictment."
Even so, Garlinghouse said he is optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term and suggested that investors be "greedy" in the face of the current correction. In his view, the lasting value of a digital asset comes from real utility — a thesis he also used to defend XRP, aimed, in his words, at speed and efficiency in international payments for institutions.
"The long-term value of any digital asset will be driven by its utility." — Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple
3. Stress test: how far could MSTR hold up?
Amid the distrust, analyst Adam Livingston published a three-year stress test on Strategy. The conclusion is twofold: the company would probably survive a severe collapse, but common shareholders would come out battered.
The modeled extreme scenario:
- Bitcoin falls 55% — from US$ 59.100 to US$ 26.600 in six months
- mNAV plunges below 0,50x
- Capital markets shut down
- The company is forced to sell BTC to cover US$ 167,7 milhões in monthly obligations
In this scenario, cash would run out in the ninth month and, over three years, the company would sell about 115.727 BTC. The part Livingston called a "horror movie": at the bottom, MSTR stock would fall from US$ 87,64 to just US$ 1.01.
Even so, there is light at the end of the tunnel. At the end of the period, the company would end up with 731.636 BTC, the stock would recover to around US$ 51,86 and mNAV would return to 1,40x. For the analyst, the main risk is not "instant bankruptcy" or a "death spiral," but the compression of value per share while senior creditors temporarily consume a large part of the Bitcoin reserves.
What to watch from now on
This Friday's recovery is welcome, but fragile. Until ETFs stop the redemptions and the market digests the doubts about leveraged treasury models, any rally runs the risk of being just short-term relief.
The tone of the coming days should be dictated, once again, by institutional money:
- If it comes back, the worst may be behind us.
- If it keeps flowing out, US$ 58 thousand may not have been the bottom.