China's economy expanded 4,3% in the second quarter of 2026, recording the slowest growth since 2022. The performance came in below analysts' expectations, who projected an increase of 4,5%, and slowed from the 5% recorded in the first quarter.
The new figures reinforce the loss of momentum in the world's second-largest economy. For investors, the result is also relevant because it influences global risk appetite, affecting traditional markets and the cryptocurrency segment.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between April and June came in below Beijing's own annual target, between 4,5% and 5%. This range represents the lowest official growth target adopted by the Chinese government in decades.
Among the factors that continue to limit the economy's expansion are weakened domestic demand, the prolonged real estate market crisis, and trade tensions with important partners such as the United States and the European Union.
Despite the GDP slowdown, some indicators showed signs of recovery in June. Retail sales rose 1% year-over-year, reversing the 0,6% decline recorded in the previous month. The result also exceeded market estimates, which pointed to a 0,1% drop.
The retail recovery comes after a period of weaker consumption, marked by aggressive discounts in commerce and lower willingness by households to spend. In May, the sector had recorded its first monthly decline since the end of 2022.
Industrial activity, in turn, showed a more solid performance. Factory output grew 5,3% in June compared with the same period of the previous year, above the 4,7% forecast and higher than the 4,5% observed in May.
Even with these positive results, the Chinese economy continues to face an imbalance between supply and demand. While industry and exports continue to benefit from the increase in global investments in artificial intelligence, domestic consumption and private investment remain under pressure.
The real estate sector continues to be one of the main obstacles to economic recovery. Last year, urban investment fell 3,8%, recording the first decline in decades. In addition to the weakness of the housing market, restrictions on local governments' indebtedness reduced infrastructure investment capacity.
In the labor market, the urban unemployment rate stood at 5% in June. The Chinese government maintains the goal of keeping this indicator below 5,5% over the next five years, while it seeks to stimulate consumption, restore investor confidence, and sustain more consistent economic growth.