The Bitcoin posted a strong rise after the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, which showed a larger-than-expected slowdown in inflation. The result reinforced investor optimism by reducing, in the short term, the pressure for a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
Released this Tuesday (14), the report showed that the CPI fell 0,4% in June month-over-month, the biggest drop since April 2020. On an annual basis, inflation slowed to 3,5%, surpassing economists' expectations.
Analysts consulted by Bloomberg projected a drop of only 0,1% in the monthly index and annual inflation of 3,8%. The more favorable performance was attributed mainly to the decline in fuel prices during June, a period in which a ceasefire between the United States and Iran was in effect, temporarily reducing energy costs.
The market reaction was immediate. Bitcoin jumped to approximately US$ 63.600 shortly after the data release and, during the session, was trading near US$ 63.718, accumulating gains of 1,85%.
U.S. futures markets showed mixed behavior after the CPI release. S&P 500 futures were down 0,22%, to 7.546 pontos, while Dow Jones futures fell 0,34%, to 52.586 pontos. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures rose 0,17%, to 29.526 pontos, driven by technology companies. Russell 2000 futures Russell 2000 were also trading lower, down 0,24%, at 2.963 points.
The volatility index VIX, known as Wall Street's risk aversion indicator, remained virtually stable at 17,13 points, with a slight decline of 0,17%, suggesting that investors were awaiting new signals on the trajectory of monetary policy.
Among commodities, gold was trading close to stability, quoted at US$ 4.007,70, up 0,05%. Meanwhile, crude oil for delivery on August 26 rose 2,38%, to US$ 80,00 per barrel, after the resumption of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns about global supply.
Despite the positive result for the headline index, core inflation showed a more moderate picture. The Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices because they are more volatile, remained unchanged on a monthly basis and posted an increase of 2,6% compared with the same period a year earlier.
The performance also exceeded market projections. Economists expected a monthly increase of 0,2% and annual inflation of 2,8%, driven by higher travel and electronics costs. The lower-than-expected reading reinforced the assessment that inflationary pressures continue to lose intensity across different segments of the economy.
Even so, analysts note that part of the CPI slowdown was the result of the temporary drop in gasoline prices. With the weakening of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran and the recent rise in oil prices, there is a possibility that July inflation data may show acceleration again.
The report was released just hours before the president of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, appear before the Capitol to provide clarifications to Congress, with inflation as one of the main topics of the hearing. On the same day, earnings above expectations released by Bank of America and by other major financial institutions reinforced the perception that the American economy continues to show resilience.
For the cryptocurrency market, CPI data represent one of the main indicators ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Weaker inflation reduces expectations of further restrictive measures by the Federal Reserve, a factor that tends to benefit riskier assets, such as Bitcoin, while investors monitor upcoming economic indicators for signs about the direction of United States monetary policy.