The Bitcoin market is going through one of the most moderate correction periods in recent cycles, according to an assessment by asset manager Bernstein. Even after the sharp decline recorded since the peak of approximately US$ 125 thousand reached in October 2025, analysts continue to defend a Bitcoin price forecast of US$ 150 thousand by the end of 2026, although they acknowledge that the target has become more challenging in light of the recent pullback.
The accumulated drop was close to 54%, a percentage significantly lower than the losses between 75% and 90% seen in previous major bear cycles. For the team led by Gautam Chhugani, this behavior indicates a more mature market, supported by institutional investors and companies that continue accumulating BTC.
In recent weeks, Bitcoin has started testing the US$ 60 thousand area again before recovering part of its losses and returning to the US$ 63 thousand range. Despite the partial rebound, analysts note that it is still too early to say that the bear cycle has been fully over.
Another highlighted point is the duration of the correction. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets tend to remain between 12 and 15 months. This time, the move has been going on for about three quarters since the top recorded in 2025, suggesting that the behavior of the current cycle differs from the previous ones.
Bernstein also observes that financial flows present a less negative reality than the sentiment prevailing among investors. In 2026, corporate treasury companies and exchange-traded funds recorded combined inflows close to US$ 10 billion, below the US$ 60 billion seen in 2025, but still positive.
Although spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated net outflows of approximately US$ 5.5 billion during the year, the asset base of these products remains high, around US$ 74 billion. For analysts, this withdrawal does not represent an express capital flight when compared to the total size of the market.
A large part of this balance continues to be supported by Strategy. The company acquired about 175 thousand BTC throughout 2026, an investment estimated at approximately US$ 14 billion, raising its reserves to more than 847 thousand bitcoins.
According to the analysis, concerns about a potential forced sale of part of these reserves remain limited. The company has sufficient liquidity to cover dividends and interest payments for more than 17 months, while its obligations represent only a small portion of the value of its Bitcoin reserves.
Even considering the possibility of selling up to US$ 1.25 billion in BTC to strengthen cash or finance corporate programs, Bernstein believes that this mechanism would hardly cause a significant supply in the market. With that, Strategy continues to be viewed as a net buyer of Bitcoin.
Another relevant move occurs among the large American miners. Several companies have been redirecting investments toward infrastructure for artificial intelligence, gradually reducing their exposure to Bitcoin mining.
With this shift, part of the network’s computing power is migrating to operators located in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Latin America. Bernstein estimates that the network hash rate fell by about 11% on average during the year, while miners in emerging markets increased their participation.
In addition to factors related to mining, analysts also point to regulatory advances in the United States and the growth of tokenized real-world assets, which reached approximately US$ 52 billion. Despite classifying its Bitcoin price forecast at US$ 150 thousand as “ambitious,” Bernstein says it will continue monitoring market flows for “any signs of recovery”.