- Cryptos may rise ahead of US elections.
- Possible catalyst: issuance of T-bills increases liquidity.
- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin at $100.000 soon.
Influential BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently shared remarkable insights into the possible vibrant future of the cryptocurrency market. In his latest essay, he predicted that the surpassing of significant price milestones by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) could trigger notable appreciation in several altcoins.
Hayes highlighted that a true “altcoin season” will only begin when Bitcoin and Ethereum surpass the values of US$70.000 and US$4.000 respectively. “The combination of a year-end dollar liquidity-inspired Bitcoin and Ether rally will create a solid foundation for the return of a sexy shitcoin party,” Hayes articulated in his detailed analysis.
Additionally, the veteran trader mentioned the expectation that Solana (SOL) could reach above $250, although he downplayed its impact compared to Bitcoin and Ether due to their higher market caps. Currently, SOL is trading with a devaluation of 43,5% in relation to its historical high.
One of the most intriguing points raised by Hayes was the prediction that Bitcoin could reach the $100.000 mark during this economic cycle. He links this possible rise to the issuance of US Treasury bonds that could introduce new liquidity into the market.
This chart of Bitcoin (gold) vs. RRP (white) clearly shows that from January to April, when Treasury bills were issued net, RRP fell and Bitcoin boomed. From April to July, when Treasury bills were net withdrawn from the market, the RRP rose and Bitcoin traded sideways, punctuated by some sharp declines. I stopped on July 1st because I wanted to show the interaction before the dollar-yen strengthened from 162 to 142, which caused a general sell-off in risk assets.
“So, taking Bad Gurl Yellen at her word, we know that $301 billion in T-bills will be issued net between now and the end of the year. The next stop for Bitcoin is $100.000,” Hayes emphasized, highlighting notable optimism for BTC’s future.
The comment not only highlights strong bullishness in the context of BTC, but also hints at a parabolic bull rally next year, projecting a glorious 2025 for the cryptocurrency market, especially between the United States and China.
However, these predictions come at a time of heightened political anticipation as the US prepares for a contentious presidential election. Hayes made critical comments towards Vice President Kamala Harris, classifying her as a “first-class political muppet” and compared her advantage over Donald Trump, highlighting Trump's support and recent investment in the cryptocurrency sector, contrasting with his previous stance while in office.